✦ Primetight agreement with the market◆ Solidnormal disagreement, proven model▲ Watchwider gap or a thinner sample
pts vs market, how many percentage points our
probability sits above the market's, once the bookmaker's margin is taken
out. On each card it is simply our model minus market.
It is a measure of disagreement, not a return: it does not mean you
make that much.
Held back
shown for transparency, not signals
These cleared the maths and failed the plausibility check. A price several times the market
reference is a stale quote; a violent disagreement with a liquid market is a model or
mapping fault. Publishing them would cost more credibility than they could ever return.
Calibrated model probabilities against live market prices, across every
bookmaker we track.
No bets are placed and nothing here is advice. 18+ · Responsible gambling.