Expected, the expected value of a stake at the best
price: our probability × best price - 1, after exchange
commission. It is what a stake returns on average if our probability is
right: an estimate, not a promise.
Held back
shown for transparency, not signals
These cleared the maths and failed the plausibility check. A price several times the market
reference is a stale quote; a violent disagreement with a liquid market is a model or
mapping fault. Publishing them would cost more credibility than they could ever return.
Photo credits
Calibrated model probabilities against live market prices, across every
bookmaker we track.
No bets are placed and nothing here is advice. 18+ · Responsible gambling.